Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Alert

Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."